NORTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND THE THUMEN RIVER AREA DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

The Tumen River Area Development Project is a plan for a transport meg a-complex at the mouth of the Tumen River on the Sea of Japan. Because the three major stakeholders are the People's Republic of China, Russ ia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea the project raises co mplex jurisdictional and economic problems. We review the context in w hich the project was established and then outline the evolution of the various plans for development of the region. Next the conditions for judging the efficacy of the project in both the short-run and the long -run are presented in the context of regional trade. The Tumen project may well play a significant role in stimulating the local regional ec onomy, including Mongolia, and help raise the rate of economic growth in that part of Northeast Asia which has so-far lagged behind the rest . There is, however, a danger that if the project is implemented on to o large a scale it may simply duplicate facilities in the region with no consequent aggregate benefit. The level of cooperation required amo ng the stakeholders is high for the project to succeed and overcoming this impediment is still the project's greatest challenge.