Lf. Tarleton et Rw. Katz, STATISTICAL EXPLANATION FOR TRENDS IN EXTREME SUMMER TEMPERATURES AT PHOENIX, ARIZONA, Journal of climate, 8(6), 1995, pp. 1704-1708
A reanalysis of the same Phoenix daily minimum and maximum temperature
data examined by Balling et al. has been performed. As evidenced by s
ubstantial increasing trends in both the mean minimum and maximum temp
eratures, this area has experienced a marked heat island effect in rec
ent decades. Balling ct al. found that a statistical model for climate
change in which simply a trend in the mean is permitted is inadequate
to explain the observed trend in occurrence of extreme maximum temper
atures. The present reanalysis establishes that by allowing for the ob
served decrease in the standard deviation, the tendency to overestimat
e the frequency of extreme high-temperature events is reduced. Thus, t
he urban heat island provides a real-world application in which trends
in variability need to be taken into account to anticipate changes in
the frequency of extreme events.