MODELING INTENSIVE-CARE UNIT CENSUS

A mathematical model revealing the relationships between bed capacity, average patient admission rate, average patient length of stay, utili zation rate, and overfill rate in intensive care units is developed an d explained. Mathematical model predictions are compared to prediction s of two kinds of discrete event intensive care unit simulations and t o data from a variety of real intensive care units. This methodology a pplies to any intensive care unit or hospital ward. There is no signif icant (p < 0.05) difference between measured utilization and overfill rates assessed in actual intensive care units, the rates obtained by d iscrete event simulations, and the rates predicted by the intensive ca re unit model. The intensive care unit census model can enhance ration al determination of intensive care unit bed and staff requirements.