A TOTAL-ENERGY DEMAND MODEL OF QUEBEC - FORECASTING PROPERTIES

In this paper, we specify and estimate a two-levels integrated total e nergy demand model for the Province of Quebec. The specification of th e model has a close relationship with models currently used by Canadia n public agencies to perform policy simulations and to make forecasts. The focus of the analysis is on forecasting. Two forecasting experime nts are conducted while using within sample data. In the first experim ent, we establish one-year forecasts, while in the second the model is solved recursively over the whole sample, which consists of annual da ta from 1962 to 1990. It is found that the model has good tracking pro perties and that most of the forecasting errors are random. The foreca sting experiments show no significant structural defects of the estima ted model as a forecasting tool.