A REASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC-EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON USAGRICULTURE

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess th e economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agricultur e. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water aris ing from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economi c consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFl ux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in prev ious studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 are an im portant determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of c hanges in world food production and associated export changes generall y have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies , the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percent age of U. S. agricultural value.