IMPROVEMENT OF HIGHWAY SAFETY .1. IDENTIFICATION OF CAUSAL FACTORS THROUGH FAULT-TREE MODELING

As the first article of a two-part series, the purpose of this paper i s to examine the functional factors that contribute to automobile acci dent occurrence and to model the causation structure in the form of a fault-tree. The fault-tree model provides an intuitive framework for q ualitatively decomposing possible pathways to accident occurrence. Fau lt-tree analysis also provides a statistical representation of how int eracting driver, vehicle, and environmental factors contribute to the likelihood of automobile accident occurrence. The application of this model facilitates pinpointing those factors that most contribute to ac cident causation and subsequently enables the identification and compa rison of potential crash avoidance technologies.