This article present a game-theoretic model of the transition to democ
racy in Poland. The events in Poland are conceptualized as a strategic
game between a government and an opposition. The transition is modele
d as a sequence of intentional decisions about political arrangements.
During the 1980s Poland went through three such arrangements: dictato
rship, broadened dictatorship, and democracy. Each one is understood a
s a game-theoretic equilibrium. The transition between two political a
rrangements is explained as a shift from one equilibrium to another. T
hese shifts occurred because the probability of Soviet intervention di
minished over time, changing incentives for the government and the opp
osition.