REPRODUCTIVE PREFERENCES AND FERTILITY TRENDS IN POSTTRANSITION THAILAND

Two large national surveys in 1988 and 1993 provide new evidence on tr ends in family-size preferences in Thailand at a time when the Thai fe rtility transition is reaching its conclusion. Although the average pr eferred number of children has continued to decline, a resistant lower bound of two children is found for the vast majority of respondents, stemming, apparently, from a pervasive, although not inflexible, desir e to have one chilli of each sex. Moreover, new evidence from birth-re gistration data indicates that the decline in the total fertility rate appears to have leveled off at about replacement level. These finding s challenge the view that fertility in Thailand will continue to fall well below replacement level, and contradict recently expressed alarmi st predictions of population decline in the foreseeable future.