THE EFFECT OF MATING PROBABILITY ON RISK-TAKING - AN EXPERIMENTAL-STUDY IN LEKKING GREAT SNIPE

We model the relationship between mating probability and risk taking f or lekking animals disturbed by predators. Our dynamic model is based on different mating probabilities among the lekking males and a declin e in both predation risk and mating probability with hiding time after a predator attack at the lek. The model predicts that a lekking male with low expected mating probability should hide for a longer period a fter a predator attack than a male with high mating probability. It al so predicts that males should hide for a longer period when predation risk is high and that a high mating advantage of a rapid return after an attack reduces the differences in optimal hiding time among males w ith different mating probabilities. To test the first prediction from the model, we have flushed great snipe (Gallinago media) males from le ks and compared their hiding times to their temporary expected mating probabilities. As predicted by our model, males with the highest expec ted probabilities of mating had the shortest hiding times. Empirical d ata also showed that individuals adjusted their hiding time to tempora ry changes in their probability of mating. Such plasticity in mating b ehavior may reduce differences among males in lifetime reproductive su ccess and thus also reduce the intensity of sexual selection.