APPLICATION OF ARMA MODELS TO ESTIMATE EARTHQUAKE GROUND MOTION AND STRUCTURAL RESPONSE

This paper deals with the use of ARMA models in earthquake engineering . Tools and methods applied to strong ground motion are discussed emph asizing simulation of probabilistic earthquake response spectra. The A RMA models are applied to Icelandic earthquake data and a tentative mo del for Icelandic earthquakes is presented. This model, which is deriv ed using 54 accelerograms, is based on a low-order, time-invariant ARM A process excited by Gaussian white noise and amplitude modulated usin g a simple envelope function to account for the non-stationary charact eristics. This simple model gives a reasonable fit to the observed gro und motion. Further, this model produces accurate earthquake response spectra, which, combined with accompanying attenuation and duration fo rmulae, might be useful in earthquake hazard and risk assessment.