INFANT-MORTALITY IN THE UNITED-STATES - TRENDS, DIFFERENTIALS, AND PROJECTIONS, 1950 THROUGH 2010

Objectives. This study examined long-term trends and differences in in fant mortality in the United States from 1950 through 1991 according t o race and ethnicity, education, family. income, and cause of death. F orecasts are made through the year 2010. Methods. Log-linear regressio n models were applied to data from the National Vital Statistics Syste m, National Linked Birth and Infant Death files, the National Maternal and Infant Health Survey, the National Natality Survey, and the Natio nal Infant Mortality Survey to model and forecast infant mortality. Re sults. Dramatic declines in the US infant mortality rate have occurred in the past 4 decades, largely as a result of declines in mortality f rom pneumonia and influenza, respiratory distress syndrome, prematurit y and low birthweight, congenital anomalies, and accidents. Despite th e overall reductions, however, substantial racial/ethnic, educational, and income differences in infant mortality still exist. Conclusions. The long-term downward trend in US infant mortality has not benefited Blacks and Whites equally. The Black/White disparity in infant mortali ty has not only persisted but increased over time and is not expected to diminish in the near future. Educational inequalities have also wid ened, and racial disparities have generally increased across all educa tional levels.