ESTIMATION AND PROJECTIONS OF STOMACH-CANCER TRENDS IN ITALY

Mortality data from official sources, and survival data from populatio n-based cancer registries, are used for the estimation of incidence an d prevalence of stomach cancer. Time trends of morbidity, survival, an d mortality during the period 1970-90 are presented and analyzed Incid ence rates were decreasing during the considered period, but the rate of decrease was slowing down during the last decade. Almost stable rat es, and even slightly increasing for women, were estimated for the you ngest cohorts. Relative survival for stomach cancer was higher for wom en and for young ages; it was associated positively with period of dia gnosis, and presented a significant South-North geographic gradient. P revalence was estimated as decreasing during the period 1970-80, but i ncreasing during the successive decade, due to both better survival an d population aging. Projection of stomach cancer morbidity and mortali ty to the year 2000 showed that the disease should still be considered in Italy as a major public health problem.