Bj. Cosby et al., AN ACIDIFICATION MODEL (MAGIC) WITH ORGANIC-ACIDS EVALUATED USING WHOLE-CATCHMENT MANIPULATIONS IN NORWAY, Journal of hydrology, 170(1-4), 1995, pp. 101-122
The results from two whole-catchment manipulation experiments in Norwa
y are used to evaluate MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In
Catchments), a model of ecosystem biogeochemical response to acid dep
osition. MAGIC is an aggregated catchment-scale model of acidification
that has been widely used in assessment activities in Europe and Nort
h America. The experiments involved artificial decrease (Reversing Aci
dification In Norway, RAIN) and increases (Humid Lake Acidification Ex
periment, HUMEX) in acidic deposition. Runoff from both sites is influ
enced by moderate levels of organic acids. At each site the model was
calibrated to the control catchment and then applied to the manipulate
d catchments with only minor adjustments. The major responses in runof
f chemistry to the manipulations were closely simulated by the model.
Differences between simulated and observed volume-weighted annual aver
age concentrations of all major ions were less than +/-6 mu equiv 1(-1
) for the entire 4-8 year period of prediction. Trends in response to
the manipulations were correctly simulated. Most of the residual error
resulted from an inability of the model to reproduce the year-to-year
variability (noise) around the trends. Although such model evaluation
s cannot 'prove' the correctness of the model structure, good fits to
experimental data increase confidence in model applications for assess
ment and management purposes. Evaluations of this sort can also identi
fy aspects of the model that need further development. For MAGIC, thes
e are primarily a need for improvement in the calibration of aluminium
solubility and a better process basis for nitrogen dynamics.