2 PATHWAYS OUT OF DRINKING PROBLEMS WITHOUT PROFESSIONAL TREATMENT

This 3-year longitudinal study examined two recovery pathways among 13 5 problem drinking individuals who never received professional treatme nt. Almost half (48.3%) of those individuals for whom outcome could be clearly determined became moderate drinkers or stably abstinent. At b aseline, individuals who subsequently became abstinent (n = 28) were o f low socioeconomic status, had severe drinking problems, and believed their drinking was a very serious problem. Once they began their reco very, they relied heavily on Alcoholics Anonymous as a maintenance fac tor. In contrast, individuals who became moderate drinkers (n = 29) ha d higher socioeconomic status and more social support at baseline than did individuals who became abstinent or continued to have drinking pr oblems. A logistic regression on baseline data showed that it was poss ible to predict which natural recovery pathway an individual drinker w ould follow. The implications of these findings for alcoholism treatme nt and policy are discussed.