SURVIVAL AND REPRODUCTION OF FEMALE WILD TURKEYS IN NEW-YORK

Annual fluctuations of northern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silve stris) populations often are attributed to high winter mortality. Howe ver, studies conducted in agricultural environments have demonstrated that seasonal survival can be highest during winter, suggesting other factors are more important to annual population change. We examined su rvival and reproduction of female eastern wild turkeys in south-centra l New York during 1990-93 and conducted a sensitivity analysis to dete rmine the relative importance of demographic parameters to annual popu lation change. Seasonal survival rates (n = 238) were 0.800 for spring , 0.855 for summer, 0.834 for fall, and 0.873 for winter. Fall surviva l rates varied by years (P < 0.01) and were higher during years of abo ve average hen success. Annual survival rates averaged 0.498, and crud e annual mortality rates ((M) over cap) averaged 0.321 for predation a nd 0.117 for poaching, hunting, and wounding combined. Subadult female s had lower nesting rates (P = 0.002, n = 201), lower renesting rates (P = 0.001, n = 115), and lower hen success rates (P = 0.02, n = 196) than adult females. Nest success averaged 37.9% (n = 232) and was high est (P = 0.005) during years with average to below average May rainfal l. We observed annual variation in nest success (P = 0.001), hen succe ss (P = 0.003), and hatching rates (P = 0.04). Poult survival averaged 40.0% (n = 605) and did not vary among years (P = 0.73). Nest success was the primary factor contributing to annual population change. We s uggest that annual fluctuations of northern populations in mixed agric ultural and forested environments rarely result from variability of an nual survival and may result from variability of annual nest success a nd poult survival. Northern populations subjected to infrequent severe winters in mixed agricultural and forested environments likely would benefit more from enhancement of nesting and brood-rearing habitat.