The rate of recurrence of febrile seizures and the factors predictive
of a recurrence were prospectively examined in a cohort of 98 Saudi ch
ildren who presented consecutively with their first febrile seizure at
the pediatric emergency department of the King Khalid University Hosp
ital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Children with prior afebrile seizures or e
vidence of a neurodevelopmental deficit were excluded. The median age
was 15 months (range, 4 to 60 months). Of the 98 children, 72 had simp
le and 26 had complex initial febrile seizures. In a follow-up of 3 to
6 years (mean, 49 months), 26% of the 98 untreated children had at le
ast one recurrence and only 8% had more than three recurrent febrile s
eizures; 30% of first recurrences took place within 3 months, 60% with
in 6 months, 72% within 12 months, and 96% within 24 months of the ons
et. Four major risk factors for recurrent febrile seizures were identi
fied: early age at onset (< 12 months), first-degree consanguinity of
parents, epilepsy in a first-degree relative, and complex initial febr
ile seizure. Gender, family history of febrile seizures, and degree of
fever were not related to recurrence.