ADOPTION OF INNOVATIONS BY COSTA-RICAN LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS UNDER DIFFERENT LEVELS OF EXTENSION INTENSITY - PREDICTED VERSUS OBSERVED BEHAVIOR

The development of efficient agricultural extension strategies is depe ndent on the accurate prediction of farmer response to diverse extensi on messages and methods of delivery. Most research on adoption behavio ur has concentrated on farmer characteristics as the main determinants of adoption rates. This paper focuses attention on extension agency a ctivities (EAA) as an equally important variable. Ex-ante studies of t hree farmer populations predicted the existence of two distinct adopti on scenarios; namely, managerial capacity (MC) dependent, where farmer MC plays an important role in adoption and MC independent, where the level of farmer MC does not appear to be involved in the adoption proc ess. An experiment involving 108 farmers divided amongst four extensio n treatments was carried out to test the ex-ante hypotheses. Of the ni ne system x technology combinations tested, five were correctly predic ted from the ex-ante model. This paper details reasons for the model's failure to predict accurately the four remaining cases. It is conclud ed that not only farmer MC and EAA, but also variables associated with economic climate, attributes of innovations, existence of structural constraints and appropriateness of technologies should be incorporated into the model in order to improve the predictability of adoption beh aviour based on ex-ante studies.