DEVELOPING POLICY IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

Since the 1960s, the US has depended primarily on a 'command and contr ol' approach to managing and regulating environmental and public healt h risks. These prescriptions have succeeded in reducing some categorie s of gross pollution. However, they can also be overly rigid and econo mically inefficient, stifle innovation and competitive ability, and so metimes produce unintended consequences that increase pollution or ris k. Such methods are inappropriate for responding to the risks from com plex and highly uncertain problems. We propose a conceptual framework for developing regulation and management practices from first principl es. This framework ties policy implementation to fundamental values an d beliefs about how the world works. It helps to reveal the implicatio ns of different policy and regulatory strategies and shows that certai n values and beliefs, and the strategies that stem from them, are more appropriate for such issues than other, more traditional approaches. In addition, we discuss how the policy development process itself refl ects underlying values and is as important as the content of the polic y itself. In a context where risks are highly uncertain and solutions are not definitive, useful content can be developed and improved only through an effective process.