This paper examines cyclical patterns of innovative activity in the Un
ited Kingdom over the period I948-83 Innovative activity turns out to
have many of the properties of a random walk, but does show a tendency
to cluster during booms. There is clear evidence of a long-term secul
ar relation between the level of innovative activity and the level of
economic activity, although this may have changed in the I980s. Finall
y, the data provide no reason for thinking that these clusters of inno
vation cause cyclic variations in economic activity, but variations in
economic activity do Granger cause changes in innovative activity.