PREDICTION OF ADULT SKINFOLDS AND BODY-MASS FROM INFANCY THROUGH ADOLESCENCE

In this paper age-to-age correlations for the body mass index and for skinfolds are evaluated for a sample of normal children studied from b irth to adulthood. While correlations over larger age spans are modest , they become appreciable from childhood to adolescence and from adole scence to adulthood. Correlations are consistently higher for boys com pared to girls, and only for the former does the body mass index corre late better than skinfolds. Significant correlations between weight in crease in the first year and the adult body mass index were found, as well as between the age of 'adiposity rebound' and the adult body mass index. However, the small size of the correlations forbids any predic tive applications. As it turns out, the individual prediction of the a dult size of the body mass index or of skinfolds is a thorny problem, whatever variables and methods are chosen. The precision of such a pre diction is very low up to late childhood and becomes somewhat better i n adolescence. From a positive side, this leaves much room for overwei ght children to improve their state. On the other hand, the relative r isk for becoming a heavy adult is much increased for those who are alr eady heavy as children and adolescents. This underlines the dangers of early overweight from an epidemiological viewpoint.