PREDICTION OF DIABETES-MELLITUS (NIDDM)

This study was made to analyze predictive NIDDM markers using a long-t erm GTT follow-up observation period of 1-30 years. Subjects of this s tudy were 5446 cases (3994 males, 1452 females). Results are as follow s: (1) NIDDM development rate increased gradually with increasing 2 h- PG levels at GTT, bur for groups with 2 h-PG greater than or equal to 170 mg/dl, the rate rose rapidly. (2) PG at GTT was higher in the NIDD M development group than in the control group. Mean 1 h-PG reached gre ater than or equal to 200 mg/dl for 4 years before onset in the NIDDM group. Frequency of 1 h-PG greater than or equal to 200 mg/dl was 54% 4 years before and 67% 1 year before onset. (3) The highest NIDDM pred iction accuracy was in 1 h-PG levels of 200 mg/dl or more and/or 2 h-P G levels of 170 mg/dl or more. Sensitivity was 75.2%, and specificity, 63.4% within 3 years before onset. (4) With addition of Delta IRI/Del ta PG, sensitivity increased, but specificity decreased. (5) The highe st relationship with NIDDM development was for high PG levels (1 h-PG greater than or equal to 200 mg/dl and/or 2 h-PG greater than or equal to 170 mg/dl), the odds ratio being 5.65. The odds ratio of Delta IRI /Delta PG was lower than the ratio of high PG levels. (6) NIDDM develo pment rate increased about 50% in the under-60-years age group and in the group of BMI greater than or equal to 25.