PREDICTING SURVIVAL IN NEW ENVIRONMENTS THROUGH ANALYTICAL GIS APPLICATION

Predicted climate change is expected to impact many biological populat ions independently of their current equilibrium-level community affili ations. A model is presented that uses environmental response surface, dispersal potential, plant longevity, and climate change vectors to p redict the survival of various plant species populations with differin g terrain types. These types include actual Geographical Information S ystem (GIS) cases from southern Africa with multiple levels of landsca pe permeability and discontinuity. Examples include terrain slope conf igurations that satisfy survival requirements of different plant popul ations with expected climate change. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Scien ce Ltd.