PREDICTING THE QUALITY OF AN UNBORN GRANGE

In a recent paper Ashenfelter, Ashmore and Lalonde found they could ex plain the variation in the price (and quality) of Bordeaux vintages by a combination of age, temperature and rainfall. The same ideas are ap plied here to Grange Hermitage, Australia's premier wine. Weather vari ation is less important than in Bordeaux. However, some remarkably rob ust results are obtained: a 'quality index' for Grange is derived, pre dictions about still unreleased vintages are made, the Australian regr ession coefficients work well in the Bordeaux equation, and issues rel ating to market efficiency in the pricing of young wines are examined.