USTED - A METHODOLOGY FOR A QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS OF LAND-USE SCENARIOS

Scenarios are a useful tool to study the effects of changes in the soc io-economic and/or biophysical environment on agricultural land use. F or the analysis of these scenarios an operational methodology, denomin ated USTED, has been developed. The methodology is based on a linear p rogramming model in combination with GIS, crop growth simulation model s, and expert systems. The data requirements include quantitative desc riptions of land use systems and technologies, attribute data on e.g. prices and chemical compositions, and georeferenced data on farms and soils. Sustainability is incorporated in the methodology by a limited number of quantified sustainability parameters. The linear programming model analyses, on the basis of different farm types, the effect of d ifferent scenarios on land use. Customized computer software (MODUS) o perationalises the integration of the different models. The methodolog y is illustrated with a case study for the Neguev settlement in the At lantic Zone of Costa Rica.