RECIDIVISM AMONG PAROLED PROPERTY OFFENDERS RELEASED DURING A PERIOD OF PRISON REFORM

Data from four successive yearly cohorts and one special early release cohort of parolees are used to explore the question of whether rapid statewide changes in the administration of criminal justice affected t he patterns of recidivism among persons on parole for property offense s. Given the earlier broadly constructed research reported by Ekland-O lson et al. (1993), and their conclusion that variation in shifting po licies would have different effects on different types of offenses, we decided to sharpen the focus of the research questions posed by conce ntrating on recidivism patterns among property offenders. Three altern ative explanations-compositional effects, administrative discretion, a nd deterrence-are explored to interpret the differences found across c ohorts. While suggestive, these alternative explanations remain open t o question given the limitations inherent in quasi-experimental resear ch. Conclusions related to issues of prison construction policy sugges t that more attention be paid to the ''replacement factor,'' whereby ' 'vacancies'' left by incarcerated offenders are rapidly filled by othe rs. If future research supports the rapid replacement hypothesis, incr eased levels of incarceration will yield a larger, more experienced cr iminal ''work force'' and ironically a heightened collective potential for crime.