We test the effectiveness of using an alpha backscatter, alpha-proton,
X ray spectrometer on a remotely operated rover to analyze soils and
provide geologically useful information about the Moon during a simula
ted mission to a hypothetical site resembling the Apollo 17 landing si
te. On the mission, 100 soil samples are ''analyzed'' for major elemen
ts at moderate analytical precision (e.g., typical relative sample sta
ndard deviation from counting statistics: Si [11%], Al [18%], Fe [6%],
Mg [20%], Ca [5%]). Simulated compositions of soils are generated by
combining compositions of components representing the major lithologie
s occurring at the site in known proportions. Simulated analyses are g
enerated by degrading the simulated compositions according to the expe
cted analytical precision of the analyzer. Compositions obtained from
the simulated analyses are modeled by least squares mass balance as mi
xtures of the components, and the relative proportions of those compon
ents as predicted by the model are compared with the actual proportion
s used to generate the simulated composition. Boundary conditions of t
he modeling exercise are that all important lithologic components of t
he regolith are known and are represented by model components, and tha
t the compositions of these components are well known. The effect of h
aving the capability of determining one incompatible element at modera
te precision (25%) is compared with the effect of the lack of this cap
ability. We discuss likely limitations and ambiguities that would be e
ncountered, but conclude that much of our knowledge about the Apollo 1
7 site (based on the return samples) regarding the distribution and re
lative abundances of lithologies in the regolith could be obtained. Th
is success requires, however, that at least one incompatible element b
e determined.