MANAGED CARE ON THE MARCH - WILL PHYSICIANS MEET THE CHALLENGE

The health care delivery system in the United States is in transition. Increasingly managed care plans are gaining in predominance. The prol iferation of managed care systems will have an impact on the demand an d requirements for physicians. This paper attempts to project and esti mate requirements for physicians in 2000 and 2020, assuming that the h ealth care system will continue to be dominated by managed care. The p rojections are then compared to forecasts of physician supply under tw o separate physician production scenarios. The authors discuss the ade quacy of the future physician workforce to provide services required b y a health care system dominated by managed care.