REPORT OF THE FIRST PROSPECTUS DEVELOPMENT TEAM OF THE US WEATHER RESEARCH-PROGRAM TO NOAA AND THE NSF

NOAA and the NSF have jointly commissioned science planning activities under the interagency U.S. Weather Research Program Office at Silver Spring, Maryland, and the Office of the Lead Scientist at NCAR. The le ad scientist charged the authors of this report to take a first step i n program definition by recommending scientific directions mainly from a fundamental and theoretical perspective. Spirited discussions rangi ng from advanced concepts of predictability to practical problems in o perational forecasting led to the publication of this report. This is the first in a series of reports to the community that, in aggregate, will serve to shape the program. Concerns are expressed about knowledg e pertaining to the economic value of weather information and the cost s and benefits associated with potential improvements in observing sys tems and forecasting techniques. Ten recommendations are made concerni ng various data infrastructure issues. These address a determination o f an optimal mix of observing systems, use of programmable observing s ystems, land surface properties and processes, improved water vapor me asurements, improved measurements in clouds, aircraft measurements in aid of hurricane forecasting, improved measurements of the upper ocean , global rawinsonde coverage, specialized research observing systems, optimal use of existing and emerging operational data sources, open op erational data, and improved data access. Seventeen emerging basic res earch opportunities are identified. These include fundamental physics of land-air interaction, adaptive observing strategies, dynamical infl uences of cloud microphysical processes, seasonal and longer timescale variations, the fundamental role of the tropopause in extratropical d ynamics, tropical cyclone genesis and intensity change, dynamics of la ndfallen tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective system dynamics and p hysics, coupling of atmospheric boundary layers with deep convection, convective ensemble dynamics, orographic and other influences on sourc es of potential vorticity, orography influences on airflow and precipi tation, interaction of balanced and unbalanced circulation systems, me soscale frontal cyclones, application of models to forecasting fire we ather, ensemble forecasting and data assimilation techniques, and adva nced model output statistical techniques.