ECONOMICS, ISSUES AND THE PEROT CANDIDACY - VOTER CHOICE IN THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION

Theory: Theories of presidential elections (economic voting and spatia l issue and ideology models), combined with the popular explanation of ''angry voting,'' are used to account for voter choice in the 1992 pr esidential election. Hypotheses: Voter choice in this three-candidate race is a function of economic perceptions, issue and ideological posi tions of voters and candidates, or voter anger, Methods: Multinomial p robit analysis of 1992 National Election Studies data including indivi dual-specific and alternative-specific variables. Simulations based on counterfactual scenarios of ideological positions of the candidates a nd of voter perceptions of the economy Results: The economy was the do minant factor in accounting for voter decisions in 1992, and Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. While issues (m ainly abortion) and ideology did play some role, Clinton was not perce ived by the electorate as a New Democrat. We find little support for t he hypothesis of angry voting. Last, Perot took more votes from Bush t han from Clinton.