THE POLITICAL ECONOMIC OF COMPETITIVE ELECTIONS IN THE DEVELOPING-WORLD

Theory: Theories of economic voting are applied to competitive electio ns in the developing world. Hypotheses: The effect of the macroeconomy on electoral support for incumbent parties is mitigated by the impact of the economy on turnout and the relative sensitivity of voters to r ecession and growth. Method: Pooled time series data on aggregate elec toral data for eight developing countries are analyzed using least squ ares with dummy variables (LSDV). Results: Economic decline imposes en ormous electoral costs on governments, but economic growth provides no electoral benefits.