IS IT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE FIRST YEAR EXTENT OF PAIN AND DISABILITY FOR PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID-ARTHRITIS

Objective, To investigate prediction of the extent of suffering during the first year of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with patient characterist ics found to be capable of predicting short term or longterm endpoint disability. Methods. Ninety-five patients with recently diagnosed RA, participating in a prospective clinical trial, were seen every 3 mo du ring 1 year. The 12 month and cumulative values of disability (Dutch v ersion of the Health Assessment Questionnaire) and pain (visual analog scale) were related to demographic, clinical, laboratory, and psychol ogical mood variables in correlation and regression analyses. Results. Baseline values of disability and pain were related most strongly to 12 mo and cumulative values of disability; baseline pain was virtually the only important predictor of 12 mo and cumulative pain. Other base line characteristics had virtually no additional predictive power. Con clusion. The short term disease course of RA in terms of disability an d pain is most strongly related to the baseline values of these variab les, and cannot reliably be predicted with frequently recognized longt erm prognostic factors, such as rheumatoid factor status or sex.