USING JUDGMENT IN RESOURCE-MANAGEMENT - A MULTIPLE-OBJECTIVE ANALYSISOF A FISHERIES MANAGEMENT DECISION

This paper uses multiple objective decision analysis to conduct an ex post analysis of a specific fisheries management decision involving co nflicting long-term objectives for mixed stocks. The paper illustrates the potential role of subjective judgment in fisheries and other reso urce management contexts and the relevance of decision analysis for in -season salmon management. The decision context is first defined in te rms of objectives and alternatives, then subjective probability distri butions are elicited from experts regarding uncertain biological param eters. A simulation is then used to estimate the consequences of alter native openings, given the biological uncertainties. A utility functio n is elicited from a fisheries manager and used to select among altern ative commercial fishery openings. The results show that objectives ot her than those typically assumed in fisheries modeling, and subjective judgments by technical experts, can be important for in-season salmon management. The results also show that, in this application, the equi valent of nearly $8 million in potential benefits are available from d elaying the opening of the commercial fishery by a single day.