IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN GREECE

A stochastic space-time model is used at four locations in Greece for estimating the effect of global climate change on daily temperature an d precipitation. The approach is based on a semi-empirical downscaling of simulated daily atmospheric Circulation Patterns (CP) of General C irculation Models (GCM). Historical data and a 10-year outputs of the Max Planck Institute GCM for the 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 cases are used. N ine CP types for the winter and summer half years are obtained to char acteriz;e large-scale climatic forcing in Greece. Local temperature an d precipitation appear to be highly dependent on CP types. The space-t ime response of daily temperature to global climate change is slightly variable in Greece. In general, a warmer climate will imply nearly 3 degrees C increase in fall and in winter. The variability within the m onth will not change considerably. A slight but statistically signific ant increase of precipitation is obtained at one location and an insig nificant increase is found at the other three locations.