POPULATION-DENSITY, ECONOMIC-GROWTH AND SOCIETIES IN TRANSITION - BOSERUP RECONSIDERED IN A KENYAN CASE-STUDY

In examining the relationship between population growth and income gro wth, this article first looks at the Malthusian, transition and revisi onist positions. The first is not borne out by historical experience, and the latter two do not explain why greater affluence generally lead s to lower rates of population growth. It is argued here that the cruc ial population characteristic is density. Rising densities from a low base facilitate more productive agriculture and greater specialization and exchange within a society, as Boserup (1965) pointed out. This le ads to increased wealth but also to higher costs for education and lan d. This provides a link to Caldwell's (1976) explanation of changing a ttitudes to family size: at low densities in simple societies benefits from children exceed costs, while at higher densities in complex soci eties costs exceed benefits. The changes in societies and economies ar e illustrated by a Kenyan case study. Kenya has experienced particular ly rapid population growth this century, and high economic growth; it is now experiencing the transition to lower birth rates.