PLANNING CHINA COAL AND ELECTRICITY DELIVERY SYSTEM

Although China produces 1.1 billion tons of coal per year, demand is p rojected at almost 1.6 billion tons in 2000. Transport bottlenecks, co al and electricity shortages, and worsening air pollution threaten the country's double-digit GNP growth. To address these problems, the Wor ld Bank and the Chinese State Planning Commission developed a decision support system consisting of a mixed-integer program, a geographic in formation system, and related submodels. The Coal Transport Study (CTS ) model covers coal mining, washing, and transport; thermal, hydro, an d nuclear power generation; electricity transmission; pollution levels ; and scrubbers; which together will require at least $240 billion in new investments over a 15-year horizon. The analysis results influence d several government policies concerning GNP growth, coal imports, and various capital investments, with a potential benefit of about $6.4 b illion from 1991 to 2005.