THE MAKING OF A GHETTO - SPATIALLY CONCENTRATED POVERTY IN NEW-YORK-CITY IN THE 1980S

In recent years a debate has arisen over which of two mechanisms - cla ss selective household mobility or spatially focused increases in pove rty - has been the driving force in concentrating poverty in certain i nner-city neighborhoods. This paper utilizes a multivariate analysis t o identify the processes underlying areal income-class transition in N ew York City during 1978-1987, and the areal characteristics that pred ict a consistent path of change. By anchoring the analysis at the leve l of the individual housing unit, this study disentangles the competin g mechanisms of poverty concentration and demonstrates that both selec tive mobility and shifts in income class contribute to areal income-cl ass transition, but that the latter mechanism accounts for a greater a mount of change. Further, after controlling for the proportion of mino rity residents and public housing units in the area, the results show that location in poor areas is associated with poor in-movement, nonpo or out-movement, and downward shifts in the income class among long-te rm residents. These mutually reinforcing processes lead to continued d ecline in extreme- and high-poverty areas, while processes in the oppo site direction sustain the economic vitality of low-poverty areas.