MODERNIZATION PROCESS AND FERTILITY CHANGE IN PRE-ISLAMIC AND POST-ISLAMIC REVOLUTION OF IRAN - A CROSS-PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS, 1966-1986

The purpose of this paper is to examine some of the possible causal li nks between modernization forces and fertility patterns of the Iranian provinces during three time periods, 1966, 1976 and 1986. A moderniza tion scale was constructed using Iranian census data. Six indicators o f industrialization, urbanization and universal education were used to develop the scale. The ratio of children under 5 years per women 15 t o 44 years old was used as a measure of fertility. The findings show t hat modernization has proceeded upward in an almost consistent pattern in all the provinces during 1966-1986. The Islamic Revolution and Ira n-Iraq War not only did not disrupt the modernization trend, it seems that both events accelerated the rate of change. The modernization ind icators, individually and collectively, were significantly and inverse ly correlated with fertility ratios. However, the fertility ratios of the provinces substantially increased in the decade of 1976 to 1986. O ur thesis is that the elimination of the national family planning prog ram which happened in the early part of the post-Islamic Revolution ha d significant effect on the fertility increase of the period 1976 to 1 986. The current active family planning program of the Islamic Republi c of Iran suggests that the fertility rate of Iran, very likely, will decline in the near future if the current modernization trend and fert ility regulation policy continue.