DEVELOPMENT OF A CRITERION FOR RESPONSE TO THERAPY AT 6 MONTHS IN MULTIPLE-MYELOMA

To investigate the prognostic value of therapy at 6 months on survival in multiple myeloma, to develop a new criterion assessing response to initial therapy at 6 months, and to compare it to a current criterion , The types of initial and 6-month therapy were considered in a progno stic factor analysis in 70 patients treated in routine practice. Using the response to initial therapy defined by the clinician's decision a s grouping variable in this group, a discriminant analysis identified the characteristics of responder patients. The validity of the resulti ng criterion was tested in another test group. Its prognostic ability was compared to the CLMTF criterion (50% M-component reduction from ba seline). The therapy at 6 months, reflecting the clinician's appraisal of response to initial therapy, predicted survival significantly. A c riterion combining two variables (M-component change and haemoglobin l evel at 6 months) classified 70% and 72.4% of patients correctly regar ding response status in the training and test groups respectively. Thi s criterion was shown to perform better than the CLMTF criterion in pr edicting survival. Conclusion: A new criterion for response to therapy at 6 months, also presented in a nomogram, combines M-component chang e and haemoglobin level at 6 months.