F. Carrat et Aj. Valleron, INFLUENZA MORTALITY AMONG THE ELDERLY IN FRANCE, 1980-90 - HOW MANY DEATHS MAY HAVE BEEN AVOIDED THROUGH VACCINATION, Journal of epidemiology and community health, 49(4), 1995, pp. 419-425
Study objectives - This study aimed to assess total influenza mortalit
y among the elderly (greater than or equal to 75 years old) in France,
and to evaluate how many deaths may have been avoided through vaccina
tion during the past 10 years. Design - The monthly mortality rates re
lated to different causes among the elderly were obtained from the nat
ional mortality statistics for the period 1978-90. For each cause, the
proportion of the registered death rate attributable to influenza was
estimated using time series models. Each model analysed the registere
d death rate for the considered cause as a linear function of the regi
stered influenza death rate for that month, the secular trend, and the
seasonal variations. This yielded yearly regression coefficients for
influenza. Formulas were subsequently developed to estimate the death
rates avoided as a result of influenza vaccination according to the le
vel of vaccine coverage and the hypothetical effectiveness of the vacc
ine. Main results - Between 1980 and 1990 registered influenza death r
ates ranged from 11-81 per 100 000. The number of deaths attributable
to influenza but registered as resulting from another cause was up to
eight times the number of deaths registered as influenza. Total influe
nza death rates were estimated as ranging from 28 per 100 000 (1988-89
) to 482 per 10000 (1985-86). At the same time it was estimated that t
he use of influenza vaccine avoided from 7 per 100 000 deaths in 1981-
82 to 697 per 100 000 deaths in 1989-90, depending on the intensity of
the epidemic, the vaccine coverage, and the vaccine effectiveness. Co
nclusions - These results support the policy of promoting influenza va
ccination among the elderly.