THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS - CONFRONTING THE STATISTICAL REALITIES OF THEEAST-ASIAN GROWTH EXPERIENCE

This paper documents the fundamental role played by factor accumulatio n in explaining the extraordinary postwar growth of Hong Kong, Singapo re, South Korea, and Taiwan. Participation rates, educational levels, and (excepting I-long Kong) investment rates have risen rapidly in all four economies. In addition, in most cases there has been a large int ersectoral transfer of labor into manufacturing, which has helped fuel growth in that sector. Once one accounts for the dramatic rise in fac tor inputs, one arrives at estimated total factor productivity growth rates that are closely approximated by the historical performance of m any of the OECD and Latin American economies. While the growth of outp ut and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing countries of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor prod uctivity in these economies is not.