THE COGNITIVE STRUCTURE OF DECISION-MAKING AND THE COURSE OF ARAB-ISRAELI RELATIONS, 1970-1978

This study begins with an empirical examination of the structural comp onents of Arab and Israeli decision makers' beliefs about foreign affa irs and their effect: on regional relations. The results corroborate t hose of previous studies, which show a systematic positive relationshi p between the complexity of leaders' cognitions and the cooperativenes s of their foreign policy behaviors. The findings also mark the patter ns of decision making of each of the actors as either strategic or ad hoc in nature. Despite common assertions by both Arab and Israeli lead ers of the planned and aggressive intentions of opponent states, the r esults show little evidence of strategically aggressive policy making on either side. Instead, the analyses highlight the tendencies of both Arab and Israeli decision makers to apply ad hoc decision making and to moderate behavior in decision environments characterized by (1) unc ertainty and (2) where the opponent has already demonstrated its own c ooperativeness.