CONTEXT, METHODS, NUMBERS, AND WORDS - PROSPECT-THEORY IN INTERNATIONAL-RELATIONS

In this article, recent attempts to apply prospect theory to the study of international relations are reviewed and evaluated, The review of this literature leads to a number of theoretical and methodological cr itiques that are highlighted by an experiment that demonstrates the di fficulties inherent in attempting to transport this theory across disc iplinary boundaries. Of special importance is the introduction of verb al probability expressions into the experimental design. The results o f the experiment provide some support for prospect theory, but differe nces in the results obtained for different verbal probability sets ind icate that decision theorists need to be more concerned with the manne r in which probabilistic information is conveyed to (and discussed by) decision makers.