TESTING ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEMAND IN HYBRID HOUSEHOLDS USING A REFLEXIVE SURVEY

The debate over electric Vehicles (EVs) pivots largely on issues of ma rket demand: will consumers purchase a vehicle that provides substanti ally less driving range, yet can be refueled at home, than an otherwis e comparable gasoline vehicle? Also, what role do other unique attribu tes of EVs play in the purchase decision? Most previous studies find t hat limited driving range is a serious market barrier; many of those s ame studies ignore or under-value other novel attributes. To probe the se future consumer decision processes deeply and robustly, we first de vised and conducted detailed, interactive and experiment-oriented inte rviews. Then, incorporating what we learned, we designed an innovative mail survey and administered it to 454 multi-car households in Califo rnia. The four-stage mail survey included a video of EV use and rechar ging and other informational material, completion of a 3-day trip diar y and map of activity locations, and vehicle choice experiments. In ad dition to propulsion systems, respondents made choices of body styles, driving ranges, and other features. We formalized and tested what we call the hybrid household hypothesis: households who choose EVs will b e purposefully diversifying their vehicle holdings to achieve the uniq ue advantages of different propulsion systems. The hypothesis is suppo rted, given the assumptions in our experimental design. In fact, a sig nificantly larger number of EVs are chosen than the minimum number tha t would support our hypothesis. We find that purchases of battery-powe red EVs by hybrid households would account for between 7 and 18% of an nual light duty vehicle sales in California. EVs sold to fleets and ot her households would be in addition to those identified by this study. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd