MULTINATIONAL NAVAL COOPERATION IN NORTHEAST ASIA - SOME PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERATIONS FOR 2010 BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW IN 1994

The future of the US-Korean security relationship is very solid, but i t will have more multilateral dimensions and less of a purely bilatera l focus in the future than it had in the past. US-Korean relations cou ld evolve under any of three primary scenarios: a stalemate on the Kor ean peninsula in which a divided Korea continues with neither peace no r war; a bloody reunification which might take the peninsula perhaps a decade from which to recover; or a peaceful reunification a la German y. The United States hopes to induce changes in the North Korean side by drawing Pyongyang into the international economic and security comm unity, breaking down its isolation and, in the process, paving the way for peaceful reunification. The multilateralization of the security d ialogue in Northeast Asia could take many forms: an enlarged and stren gthened APEC; a security-focused ASEAN regional forum; an Asian Pacifi c treaty organization a la NATO; a trilateral US-Japan-Korea security pact; or, most likely, a building block approach of overlapping, multi lateral institutions. Multilateral naval cooperation could take severa l forms involving formalized alliance relationships, situational coope ration associated with a specific crisis or war, coordinated peacetime activities, and in the form of regional policy support. Enhancing tra nsparency of naval operations and exchanging confidence and security-b uilding measures would be important elements, The net effect of these measures would be to enhance Korean security and also to maintain the US role as a vital Asia-Pacific power.