ONGOING MONITORING AND VERIFICATION - LEARNING FROM THE IAEA UNSCOM EXPERIENCE IN IRAQ/

The end of the Cold War and the termination of the Gulf War by a Unite d Nations Security Council Resolution have combined to render obsolete many of the fundamental assumptions that have underlain our concept o f international security and the arms control process for the last dec ades. There is already growing body of experience gained from implemen tation of recently completed arms-control-related agreements from whic h significant lessons can now be distilled. One of the most significan t bases from which to draw is that associated with the United Nations experience gained in establishing an ongoing monitoring and verificati on framework in Iraq to ensure compliance by Iraq with the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions 687, 707 and 715 (1991). Clearly th e Iraq scenario is unique and is not classical arms control. Neverthel ess, this paper extrapolates useful lessons by providing a succinct re view of the background and results to date of the IAEA and of UNSCOM. It identifies from the standpoint of future compliance some of the tec hnologies employed as an ongoing monitoring and verification capabilit y is put in place in Iraq by the IAEA and UNSCOM. The physical, on-the -ground installations in Baghdad required for in-situ monitoring is di scussed. It reviews the interrelationship between the operative Securi ty Council resolutions recognizing three of them as a package delineat ing the required response by Iraq before consideration can be given to the lifting of sanctions. It discusses the regional/global interface that will be inherent in future approaches to nonproliferation, arms c ontrol and disarmament. Finally, it discusses the possible transfer of this experience to other regional problems such as the case of North Korea. It identifies similarities and differences between the two scen arios and develops various of models that might provide the modalities and the methods required for effectively monitoring future agreements . We are in the very early stages of tackling these problems. The acti vities relating to the United Nations Security Council resolutions in the case of Iraq and of possible resolutions in the case of North Kore a are at the cutting edge of a new phase of conflict resolution as the next decade approaches.