COMPUTER MODELING OF HUMAN-BEHAVIOR IN AIRCRAFT FIRE ACCIDENTS

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and l argely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to as k 'what if' questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under develo pment, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applicatio ns. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of l arge numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. Th e model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their wa y out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat a nd toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive m otion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of he uristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel - controls the physical movement of individu al passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbo uring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel - determines an individual 's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger S ubmodel - describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attri butes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel - controls the atmospher ic and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel - determine s the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. Th ese components are briefly described and their capabilities and limita tions are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and s everal hypothetical evacuation scenarios.