Rdf. Keith et al., A MULTICENTER COMPARATIVE-STUDY OF 17 EXPERTS AND AN INTELLIGENT COMPUTER-SYSTEM FOR MANAGING LABOR USING THE CARDIOTOCOGRAM, British journal of obstetrics and gynaecology, 102(9), 1995, pp. 688-700
Objectives To investigate 1. whether an intelligent computer system co
uld obtain a performance in labour management comparable with experts
when using cardiotocograms (CTGs), patient information, and fetal bloo
d sampling and 2. whether experts could be consistent and agree in the
ir management of labour. Subjects An intelligent computer system and 1
7 clinicians experienced in fetal monitoring from 16 centres in the UK
. Design Fifty cases with complete intrapartum CTGs and clinical data
were reviewed by each expert and the system independently on two occas
ions, at least one month apart. Each CTG was scored in 15 min segments
according to a protocol and estimates of the cervical dilatation and
fetal scalp blood pH were given when requested. Main outcome measures
Consistency and agreement in the recorded scores, agreement and timing
of cases recommended for caesarean sections, fetal blood sampling rat
es, intervention in cases with poor outcome and intervention in cases
with good clinical outcome. Results The system: 1. Agreed with experts
well and significantly better than chance (67.33%, kappa = 0.31, P <
0.001). 2, Was highly consistent (99.16%, kappa = 0.98, P < 0.001) whe
n used by two operators independently. 3. Recommended no unnecessary i
ntervention in cases with normal delivery and good condition (cord art
ery pH > 7.15, vein pH > 7.20, 5 min Apgar greater than or equal to 9
and no resuscitation). This was better than all but two of the experts
. 4, Recommended delivery by caesarean section in 11 cases; at least 1
5 of the 17 experts in each review also recommended caesarean section
delivery in these cases. The majority did so within 15 min of the syst
em and two-thirds did so within 30 min. 5. Identified as many of the b
irth asphyxiated cases (cord arterial pH < 7.05 and BDecf greater than
or equal to 12, and Apgar score at 5 min less than or equal to 7 with
neonatal morbidity) as the majority of experts and one more than was
acted upon clinically. The experts were found to be consistent and to
agree. There was good agreement in the cases and the timing of caesare
an section recommendations. The majority of experts did not recommend
operative intervention in cases which had a normal delivery and good o
utcome, but did recommend operative interventions in 10 of 12 cases de
livered with cord arterial pH < 7.05. However, in one of the cases del
ivered with birth asphyxia, 14 of the 17 experts and the system failed
to recommend intervention. Conclusions The system's performance was f
ound to be indistinguishable from the experts' in the 50 cases examine
d, but it was more consistent. This demonstrates the potential for an
intelligent computer system to improve the interpretation of the CTG a
nd decrease intervention. Furthermore, the good performance of most ex
perts in this study demonstrates the potential effectiveness of the CT
G and raises important questions regarding why the CTG has fallen shor
t of expectations in current practice.