EXTENSION OF THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS TO GENERAL WEATHER STATISTICS

The long-lead monthly and seasonal forecasts issued by the Climate Pre diction Center literally pertain only to average temperature and total precipitation outcomes, but implicitly contain information regarding other quantities that are correlated with these two variables. This pa per presents a method for estimating the conditional probability distr ibution for any such quantity that is a computable statistic of availa ble daily climatological data, through weighted bootstrap resampling c onditional on particular joint (temperature and precipitation) forecas t probabilities. Examples illustrating implementation and particular r esults are provided.