REGIONAL GULF-STREAM INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SPEM PRIMITIVE EQUATION MODEL

This paper develops an initialization procedure for cold-starting the Semi-spectral Primitive Equation Model (SPEM) for one week forecasts i n the Gulf Stream region. Six case studies during May 6-13-20, 1987, J uly 7-14-21, 1987, and May 4-11-18, 1988, are included in this study, and selected forecasts from these runs are discussed in depth. We deve lop the initialization procedure, and then discuss the known problems with the method. We discuss the evolution of the Gulf Stream region du ring these time periods and qualitatively compare our model results ag ainst data. We also show, using a quantitative measure of skill, that the model has forecast skill when compared with persistence. The initi alization method discussed is general, physically consistent, and appl icable to other ocean models.