BAYESIAN METHODS FOR ANALYZING CLIMATE-CHANGE AND WATER-RESOURCE UNCERTAINTIES

The purpose of this paper is to outline the advantages of the Bayesian approach for analysing uncertainties involving climate change, emphas izing the study of the risks such changes pose to water resources syst ems. Bayesian analysis has the advantage of basing inference and decis ions on a coherent and normatively appealing theoretical framework. Fu rthermore, it can incorporate diverse sources of information, includin g subjective opinions, historical observations and model outputs. The paper summarizes the basic assumptions and procedures of Bayesian anal ysis. Summaries of applications to detection of climate change, estima tion of climate model parameters, and wetlands management under climat ic uncertainty illustrate the potential of the Bayesian methodology. C riticisms of the approach are summarized. It is concluded that in comp arison with alternative paradigms for analysing uncertainty, such as f uzzy sets and Dempster-Shafer reasoning, Bayesian analysis is practica l, theoretically sound, and relatively easy to understand. (C) 1997 Ac ademic Press Limited